Iraq - Dangers

SOME recent developments must cause concern to all those interested in seeing Iraq develop into a mature and stable democracy in the heart of the Middle East. Vice President Tarik al-Hashemi, wanted on terror charges, is holed up in Kurdistan and the provincial government has so far been reluctant to hand him over to Baghdad for trial. Meanwhile, the Sunni members of Prime Minister Nuri Maliki`s government have boycotted cabinet meetings, and Mr Maliki has threatened to sack them all. Also, there have been bomb blasts in Shia areas, leading to over 60 deaths.

These developments are ominous. Making a success of democracy in the wake of a military defeat is an onerous task. Germany`s democratic experience in the wake of the First World War failed, because militias foremost among them the Nazi and communist wrecked the Weimar republic.

There are, of course, many dissimilarities between Germany and Iraq, but Iraq too is trying to work democracy in the wake of war and defeat.

The 2003 Anglo-American invasion, which ended the Baathist regime, was followed by an occupation that ended this month. The scars of the occupation are toorecenttobe recounted.

But Iraq`s infrastructure one of the Middle East`s best was pulverised, the oil industry was wiped out, Iraq`s cultural heritage was looted, and the civilian death toll, though vary-ing in estimate, was high.

Also, as in Lebanon, where the national covenant was imposed by the French (subsequently modified at Taif), the Iraqi constitution is full of compromises and seeks to strike a balance between its linguistic and sectarian populations. The basic law was enacted when Iraq was under occupation, but there were hopeful signs.

The constitution was approved in a referendum, and two general elections were held successfully despite terrorist threats. These efforts to continue the democratic experiment are laudable.

However, the Hashemi affair and the terror acts pose a threat to the system. At stake is not just democracy but Iraq`s organic unity. The Kurdistan government`s reluctance to hand over Mr Hashemi to Baghdad is indicative of the separatist tendencies in the region. These centrifugal trends have to be checked by means democratic and economic, while a spirit of accommodation must guide all parliamentary `blocs` that represent the people. Despite ethnic and sectarian divisions, the state established after the First World War has given an Iraqi identity to all its citizens.

This identity must be fostered and strengthened. Any break-up of the Iraqi state will be traumatic for the region, for it could have a spill-over effect in neighbouring countries and start a fragmentation process in the Middle East.