THERE is no shortage of young talent with restless intellectual energy
and entrepreneurial skills in Pakistan. Natural resources are untapped.
Despite its economic travails, Pakistan has a middle class that can grow
if markets grow.
A Pakistani diaspora in the West could come to
the country`s aid. These positive notes within Pakistan cannot become
music until governance improves and the writ of the state extends toits
borders.
The music has stopped completely after the Pakistani
Taliban`s attempt to kill Malala Yousufzai. It also stops whenever they
blow up markets, record shops, cinemas, and other places where civilians
congregate. No city in Pakistan is immune from these attacks. Thousands
have been killed annually.
The deaths of innocent civilians from
drone strikes represent a small fraction of this carnage. The
Tehrik-iTaliban Pakistan (TTP) didn`t begin this reign of terror because
of drone strikes, and they won`t end it if the drone strikes stop. The
strongest linkage between these disparate phenomena is that some US
drone strikes are directed at those who plan and direct this carnage on
Pakistani soil. No one in authority in Pakistan appears willing to
acknowledge this.
My advice, freely and repeatedly given, has
been for the Obama administration to fundamentally reassess its policy
on drone strikes, and to make them exceptional, rather than common
occurrences in Pakistan. As was evident in the foreign policy debate
between President Obama and Gov Mitt Romney, this is unlikely to happen.
As long as US and Nato forces in Afghanistan are being targeted by
Afghan Talibanfighters who take refuge on Pakistan`s soil, drone strikes
will continue.
When US forces are mostly withdrawn from
Afghanistan, and if the Afghan Taliban leadership move themselves as
well as their operations across the Durand Line, drone strikes in
Pakistan may be significantly reduced but not until then.
In my
view, a qualified suspension of drone strikes within Pakistan is still
warranted, even in the aftermath of the attempt to kill Malala. What are
the qualifications?First, if Pakistani authorities privately request
them and if the targets are legitimate. Second, if extremist groups
continue to plan and carry out attacks on US and Nato forces, Washington
would reserve the right to respond not at lieutenants, but at their
leaders, wherever they may be a difficult standard for Washington and
Islamabad to swallow.
Third, if there is actionable intelligence
about plans to carry out attacks on US or allied territory, the United
States would reserve the right to disrupt them.
Taken together,
all of these qualifications are likely to result in far fewer drone
strikes. These strikes would become even rarer if Pakistani authorities
assumed the responsibility of preventing their soil from becoming a
launching pad for attacks that ruin Pakistan`s international standing
and economic prospects.
A secondary reason for this proposal is
that it would clarify the wrongheaded conclusion that drone strikes make
every one of Pakistan`s problems worse. I disagree. Drone strikes do
not make Pakistan`s economic prospects worse, and the absence of drone
strikes would not make deals with the TTP any more likely to succeed.
Drone
strikes had nothing to do with the attempt to kill Malala. Nor did
drone strikes factor in the ill-fated deal between the Pakistani
government and the TTP in Swat, or its predictable demise. Horrific
Muslim-on-Muslim violence in Pakistan will continue as long as political
leaders look the other way while seeking `consensus`, and as long as
poor governance, economic stagnation, corruption, flimsy social
services, and a deteriorating educational system hold sway.
Even
if civilian casualties are kept to an absolute minimum, there are three
primary reasons for a reassessment of US policy regarding drone strikes.
First, they are unlikely to make a significant difference in
Afghanistan`s future dispensation.
Second, they can help
Pakistan`s armed forces only marginally to reclaim their country`s
periphery. Third, drone strikes ruin America`s standing in Pakistan, and
decent US-Pakistani relations are one essential condition for a
reversal of Pakistan`s fortunes.
Unless drone strikes become
exceptional rather than routine, they are a diversion and a hindrance to
steps that eventually help Pakistan to become whole.
Whether
drone strikes increase, decrease, or are suspended, Pakistan cannot hope
to become healthy unless its economy grows. Pakistan could eventually
become a beneficiary of its geography if trade flows naturally through
Pakistan between Central Asia and the subcontinent.
This promise
cannot be realised as long as Pakistan remains at loggerheads with
India, and if Afghanistan is mired in perpetual turmoil. Unchecked
violence checkmates trade flows.
Afghanistan may remain unsettled
for some time to come, blocking Pakistan`s economic growth via Central
Asia. Increased trade with India is far more feasible. If leaders in
both countries can keep increased trade on course, despite explosions
intended to stop progress, radical elements can be marginalised and
Pakistan can hope for a brighter future. • The writer is co-founder of
the Stimson Centre in Washington.
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