A winning electoral strategy is like a perfectly baked souffle. The right combination of ingredients and skill can produce exquisite results, but it is all too easy to get wrong and fall flat.
Surveying the political landscape in northern and central Punjab along a stretch of the GT Road, it`s too early to tell what`s cooking in the province. The big question will Imran Khan turn the next election into a triangular contest nationally between the PPP, PML-N and PTI or willthe PTI be more of a spoiler for the Sharifs and the PML-N? has an even bigger question mark hanging over it.
Despite having animated a section of the public that is traditionally politically nonactive particularly the youth and an urban middle-class disillusioned with the status quo the PTI wave will be up against a formidable politics that revolves around patronage networks and clan assoclations.
Yet, it`s perhaps not the strength of the opposition that the PTI will face come election time but the narrowness of ImranKhan`s central message that has limited the party`s appeal so far.
A limited appeal Zulfikar Ali Bhutto infused the labourer and peasant with a sense of self-worth and on that legacy is the PPP support built. As long as there are poor people in Pakistan, there will be PPP voters.
Nawaz Sharif built his base in Punjab by wooing the trader who was disillusioned by Bhutto`s policies; appealing to Punjabi chaunvism; and casting himself as a local lad.
The longevity of the PPP and PML-Nvote banks are based on substantive messages that appeal intimately to swathes of the public.
Outside the media echo chamber and major urban centres, however, the Khan mantra of clean, corruption-free governance being the panacea for Pakistan`s problems does not have great resonance.
Consider. Shahbaz Sharif is regarded even by his adversaries as a chief minister who has run a relatively clean government and tried where possible to install honest and untainted bureaucrats and policemen in Punjab`s districts. He is possiblyPakistan`s hardest working elected representative. But the voter has never really warmed to him, put off perhaps by his reputation for aloofness and micromanaging that an unsympathetic media has highlighted.
In Gujranwala, a first-time PML-N MNA, Justice Iftikhar Cheema (retd), has a reputation for being as clean as they come. But voters haven`t warmed to Cheema either and he ruefully speculated that in his predominantly rural constituency voters want a different kind of representative.
Where the thanna-katcheri (police and courts) system is most entrenched and voters need candidates who will look out for them and protect their interests in an exploitative judicial and lawenforcement system, a candidate needs local clout most, not necessarily the cleanest reputation.
There is also the strong tug of biradiri. Even major urban centres like Gujranwala city and large parts of Lahore may have the trappings of modern life, but they are not modern societies. Voting patterns are significantly affected by biradiri (clan) affiliations andKhan`s message will struggle against its influence.
What is overplayed is the PTTs relative lack of electables at present. Closer to election time, if Khan`s star is still perceived to be rising, he can and will attract strong candidates. Just as likely, his core voter will make his peace with some of the compromises the PTI will be forced to make nationally in the award of tickets.
But it will be more of a hard slog then a cakewalk, the battles between patronage networks and along the lines of biradiri and thanna-katcheri politics being bruising and fierce. A sweep for the PTI against powerful candidates aligned with the major partieswould be a phenomenal achievement, perhaps greater than ZAB`s victory in 1970, when patronage networks were not so entrenched.
There`s more. Even Khan`s more ardent supporters tend to express uncertainty over the PTI`s ability to transform the system or bring fundamental change. While that could be because the PTI worker is more pragmatic and cautious, a more damaging assessment would be that it`s less that Khan has matured as a politician in the eyes of voters than the failure of the existing options has diminished their popularity, and so put them within Khan`s reach. If the core aren`t true believers, will a voting majority gamble on Khan?The establishment factor No electoral analysis in Pakistan is complete without factoring in the Pakistan Army`s preferences.
The strong perception that Imran Khan and his PTI are backed by the establishment needs to be parsed carefully. While support at present is taken as a given in many quarters, the preferences come election time will likely be shaped by the actions of three players in the months ahead: Asif Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.
Zardari is a figure that the army high command neither likes nor trusts. Were he to win a second term, the fear is that he may use a fresh electoral mandate to clip the establishment`s wings or that analready corrupt regime may become even more corrupt and turn to harsh and repressive measures against political opponents. A second term is uncharted territory and given the perceptions about Zardari, the possibility is viewed with anxiety.
The problem is not new, however: much as there may be dislike for Zardari, Sharif is viewed as unpredictable and unreliable, and hence dangerous. The Punjab card means some within the establishment will always regard him as the true political leader of the country, but unless Sharif dilutes his rhetoric and makes some adjustments in the year ahead, he will be viewed with suspicion.Enter Imran Khan. The safest option among the three, he suffers from being a politically unproven entity. If Khan fails to broaden his appeal over the next few months, the army may start to make adjustments with either Zardari or Sharif.
Outside a military dispensation, a genuinely electable party and its leadership are a better bet.
An unpredictable electorate Elections in Pakistan take shape in the last few weeks of the run-up, when what`s referred to as the `wind` or the `wave` that propels parties to victory becomes apparent.
Despite appearances, Pakistan`s electorate, shaped by myriad political, local and ideological influences, is notoriously unpredictable.For all their patronage networks and biradiri links, constituency politicians are often mere passengers on the electoral train when it roars ahead at full speed just weeks before election day.
At that point, all manner of factors, many previously dormant, come into play, producing results that are hard to control systematically and even harder to predict nationally. So these are early days yet.
Khan may win, but he isn`t looking like a winner just yet.
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