Friday, July 20, 2012

New ambassadors to Af-Pak

TWO new envoys in critical posts at a critical time for the region: the replacement of the American ambassadors in Kabul and Islamabad is both a risk and an opportunity for a fresh start. Continuity at such a delicate stage might have worked better than the early departures of the outgoing chief diplomats; Cameron Munter left in less than two years and Ryan Crocker in just one. And lingering sources of tension with America in both countries will not make these changes simple or easy. Mr Munter had been here for some of the most damaging episodes in USPak relations, but much about this relationship still remains to be sorted out, particularly on the counterterrorism front.

And while Mr Crocker helped develop the framework that will guide the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the trickiest part of it is likely to be its implementation; the new envoy will have to manage both Afghan anxiety about the country`s security post-2014 and mistrust of the American presence.

But persistent problems also suggest that new faces could become an opportunity to reset ties.

In part this is because the success of American diplomacy here depends as much on how Washington works as it does on what goes on in Kabul or Islamabad. Mr Munter reportedly wanted to takea less aggressive approach to Pakistan than the CIA, on drone strikes, for example. And although Mr Crocker`s health was put forward as the reason for his departure, he is said to have been in favour of a slower withdrawal from Afghanistan than has been planned.

The more effective the US wants its new envoys to be, the more coordinated the Pentagon, the CIA, the State Department, the Af-Pak office within the State Department and the White House will need to be while still allowing the diplomats the independence they need to do their jobs. With Pakistan the main sticking point is counterterrorism, and in Kabul the focus is on war. Ambassadors, military and intelligence will have to develop consistent approaches without constricting the space for diplomacy to work.

For Pakistan an ambassador coming from a post in the Kabul embassy, as is Richard Olson, is not likely to wholly sympathise with its point of view. Alternatively, his contacts with Kabul could help navigate our own tricky relations with Afghanistan and coordinate a more integrated American approach to the region. Most importantly, the hope is that he is able to bring to Islamabad an open mind and the ability to balance America`s counterterrorism demands with Pakistan`s interests, politics and public opinion.

No comments:

Post a Comment