TWO new envoys in critical posts at a critical time for the region: the
replacement of the American ambassadors in Kabul and Islamabad is both a
risk and an opportunity for a fresh start. Continuity at such a
delicate stage might have worked better than the early departures of the
outgoing chief diplomats; Cameron Munter left in less than two years
and Ryan Crocker in just one. And lingering sources of tension with
America in both countries will not make these changes simple or easy. Mr
Munter had been here for some of the most damaging episodes in USPak
relations, but much about this relationship still remains to be sorted
out, particularly on the counterterrorism front.
And while Mr
Crocker helped develop the framework that will guide the withdrawal of
US troops from Afghanistan, the trickiest part of it is likely to be its
implementation; the new envoy will have to manage both Afghan anxiety
about the country`s security post-2014 and mistrust of the American
presence.
But persistent problems also suggest that new faces could become an opportunity to reset ties.
In
part this is because the success of American diplomacy here depends as
much on how Washington works as it does on what goes on in Kabul or
Islamabad. Mr Munter reportedly wanted to takea less aggressive approach
to Pakistan than the CIA, on drone strikes, for example. And although
Mr Crocker`s health was put forward as the reason for his departure, he
is said to have been in favour of a slower withdrawal from Afghanistan
than has been planned.
The more effective the US wants its new
envoys to be, the more coordinated the Pentagon, the CIA, the State
Department, the Af-Pak office within the State Department and the White
House will need to be while still allowing the diplomats the
independence they need to do their jobs. With Pakistan the main sticking
point is counterterrorism, and in Kabul the focus is on war.
Ambassadors, military and intelligence will have to develop consistent
approaches without constricting the space for diplomacy to work.
For
Pakistan an ambassador coming from a post in the Kabul embassy, as is
Richard Olson, is not likely to wholly sympathise with its point of
view. Alternatively, his contacts with Kabul could help navigate our own
tricky relations with Afghanistan and coordinate a more integrated
American approach to the region. Most importantly, the hope is that he
is able to bring to Islamabad an open mind and the ability to balance
America`s counterterrorism demands with Pakistan`s interests, politics
and public opinion.
No comments:
Post a Comment